The Grizzlies are red hot after winning 4 straight over the Clippers and now they go up against a Thunder team that barely got by the Rockets. The Thunder were able to get by the Rockets without Rusell Westbrook because the Rockets are one of the worst defensive teams in the league. Now that the Thunder have to play one of the best defenses we will really see what they are made of. The Grizzlies beat the Thunder twice int he regular season and they seem poised to make a run to the NBA Finals. Memphis is 26-17-1 ATS on the road this year and 31-16-2 ATS on 1 days rest. I expect Mike Conley to play a major impact in this series without Westbrook guarding him.
Brewers have lost three straight and will try to avoid the sweep on Sunday. I think they will get the job done against Jaime Garcia who has been one of the best pitchers at home over the course of his career (2.33 ERA last 3 years at home), but on the road he's been completely different posting a 4.46 ERA and he's actually struggled big time in Miller Park. Over his last four starts here he has gone just 19 innings allowed 18 ER with 35 base runners, which is nearly 2 per inning. The Brewers have hit lefties hard all season .289 average 5.79 runs per 9. At home they are even better .306 and 7.39 while in their last 10 games they have a .281 and 8.44 runs per 9 vs. LHP. With Aramis Ramirez back in the middle of the line up this team will continue to hit lefties especially at home.
Marco Estrada on the other hand has had a 3.03 ERA at home over the last three years and I think we are getting good value with him. He's got 8.66 K/9 with 1.78 BB/9 this year with a 3.58 xFIP. He's pitched decently enough to win all 3 of his starts vs. the Cardinals going 6 innings in each game with a 4.00 ERA. The Brewers are 21-7 in their last 28 as a favorite -110 to -150 while the Cardinals are 5-16 in their last 21 road games with Garcia ont he mound facing a team with a losing record.
